By John Rusnock, MTI Contributor
For many years now China has been named the pacing threat to the United States and our allies. The most dangerous catalyst for full scale war between the two would be a Chinese invasion of the island of Taiwan. Out of the twenty four scenarios run in a wargame by Center For Strategic & International Studies Taiwan was able to repel an invasion and remain independent. No matter the geopolitical outcome the loss of life would be counted in the tens of thousands, hundreds of vehicles and aircraft would be destroyed and dozens of ships to include the mighty aircraft carriers of the US Navy would be sunk. Victory in a conflict over the control of Taiwan would be Pyrrhic no matter who claimed it.
Members of the US National security state as well as academics believe and fear that the CCP led by Chairman Xi Jingping will launch an invasion sometime within the next 5 years. As a result of this fear China has been labeled the number one threat to the US and our defense establishment has been working to be ready for that threat. Part of what goes into preparing for the threat is the Washington DC based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published a wargame on this very scenario. Wargames are nothing new; they happen all the time at various levels of the Department of Defense and National Security bureaucracy. What makes this wargame unique is that it’s unclassified for the public to get a full understanding of what an invasion of Taiwan would look like.
What makes this wargame so unique is that it is unclassified and is focused on the operations of the conflict. The RAND Corporation runs war games like this very frequently however they are classified at various levels and not available to the public. There are other organizations that have run war games around this topic but not to the same operational depth as CSIS did. For example the Center for a New American Security ran a war game with a report called The Poison Frog Strategy but this report focused on geopolitical ramifications and responses as opposed to operational outcomes.
The Outcome
The wargames played out to show that China will likely not successfully invade the island. Taiwan would be able to hold off the Chinese enough to maintain a at least some politcal control of the territory. Most iterations show that while this conflict would last months the heaviest fighting and greatest concentration of losses would be the first three weeks of the conflict. The following are word for word the four conditions that must be met in order to successfully defend Taiwan.
- Taiwan must vigorously resist. If it does not, the rest is futile.
- The United States must join hostilities within days and with the full range of its capabilities. Delays and half measures make the defense harder, increase U.S. casualties, and raise the risk of the Chinese creating an irreducible lodgment on Taiwan.
- The United States must have use of its bases in Japan. Without them, the United States cannot use its numerous fighter/attack aircraft.
- Finally, the United States must possess enough air-launched, long-range ASCMs (Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles).
What we learned
- China will strike US bases in Japan and Guam inflicting heavy damage and casualties to both US military personnel and local civilians.
- China will not struggle to get soldiers onto Taiwan via seaborne and airborne infiltration. They will struggle to get forces beyond the foothold they initially secure as well as sustaining those forces with the necessary supplies.
- In 21 of 24 scenarios the bulk of Chinese forces attempt the invasion in Southern Taiwan due to the terrain on the beaches and inland.
- Chinese performance is largely based on two items
- The ability to protect its amphibious fleet so that it is constantly supporting the troops on the island
- Capturing/maintaining ports and airports to fill the gap made by inevitable loses in its amphibious fleet
- The current methods of supporting Ukraine will not work in Taiwan. US/Coalition partners can not count on any meaningful resupply of the Taiwanese once the conflict begins
- New warfighting domains (cyber, space and counterspace) add to both sides capability but not enough to to give either side a significant advantage
- Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles are enough of a concern that US and coalition surface ships can not come close to Tawian until the Chinese have used most of them
- The US Submarine fleet will wreak havoc on Chinese vessels at a high price. The sub fleet will likely lose 20% of its vessels.
- US Military and Political leaders are not on the same page when it comes to the defense of Taiwan. Both don’t understand each other’s priorities and endsates leading to flawed war plans and policies.
What was missed
One reality that is not covered in this wargame that is important to understand is the effect of weather. Due to the monsoon season cycle there are only two windows in which this battle can be fought without significant degradation of capabilities. The first window is from May to July and the second window is limited to October. Weather affects everything and what is taught in the Military Intelligence schoolhouse is that it affects both friendly and enemy forces equally with some very rare exceptions. For China this means if they hope to achieve any type of victory timing will be everything. From the moment that the first aircraft or missile crosses the LD (line of departure) the timer starts. At the end of that timer is one of two disastrous realities for the PLA. Either the weather which will completely halt their logistics and combat power or an organized coalition response backed by the full might of US, Japanese and other coalition partners.
Conclusion
In all likelihood Taiwan will be able to remain an autonomous nation and repel any invasion effort by China. However the cost for the world is staggering. The level of death and destruction will measure in the tens of thousands and billions of dollars respectively. The Taiwanese would likely pay the heaviest price with significant numbers of civilians as casualties, its infrastructure wrecked and its economy in total freefall. The Chinese military will likely become combat ineffective and take years if not decades to rebuild. Finally the US ability to power project in the Indo-Pacific region will be severely diminished and the Pacific fleet will become combat ineffective.
John is an active duty US Army officer.