Research Review: Ranger School Attrition and Predictors of Success

By Rob Shaul

BLUF

Across multiple sources, including Army Training Brigade data from 2015 (Fivecoat et al.), a 2023 peer-reviewed predictor study (Benedict et al.) which looked at 2015 data, and practitioner insight (Spencer, 2016), a consistent pattern emerges: RAP Week is the decisive filter for Ranger School. Around 50–60% of all Ranger School failures occur in RAP Week, most often due to the push-up event, followed by land navigation and the 12-mile foot march. Candidates who survive RAP Week have approximately a 70% likelihood of graduating.

The 2023 study adds context: successful graduates tend to be younger, come from units with more Ranger-qualified peers, and record faster 2-mile run times, but there was no measurable difference in grit between graduates and non-graduates. The dataset likely reflects pre–RAP Week testing, though the authors do not explicitly state this.

Note: This reasearch and articles considered Ranger Schools candidates from 2015 and the old Ranger Physical Assessment (RPA) at RAP Week. However, in April 2025, the Army replaced the legacy entry test (RPA) with a new Ranger Physical Fitness Assessment 2.0 (RPFA), built around continuous, combat-relevant movement. No attrition data under this new gate has been released.

The Legacy Gate: RAP Week and the Old RPA

RAP Week (“Ranger Assessment Phase”) historically eliminated half or more of each class in the first four days. The Ranger Physical Assessment (RPA) was the first major test and the single biggest attrition event. It required:

– 49 push-ups in 2 minutes
– 59 sit-ups in 2 minutes
– 5-mile run in 40 minutes or less
– 6 chin-ups

According to ARTB’s 2016 Infantry Magazine article (Fivecoat et al.), 862 students (35%) of those who arrived at Camp Rogers in FY2015 failed at least one RPA event, with push-ups accounting for the majority of failures. RAP Week as a whole eliminated roughly 50% of the class .

Following the RPA, the 12-mile foot march (ruck) and land navigation test were the next major failure points. In FY2015, 415 students (16.8%) failed the foot march and 382 (15.5%) failed land navigation. Fatigue was a major factor — both events occurred after multiple physically and cognitively demanding days with limited sleep, in the middle or near the end of RAP week.

Those who passed RAP Week were far more likely to graduate full Ranger School — roughly 70% or higher, based on Army Training Brigade historical trends. Failures in later phases typically resulted from patrol evaluation drops, injuries, or voluntary withdrawal.

Predictors of Success: The 2023 Cohort Study

The 2023 study (Benedict et al., Military Psychology) analyzed 670 Ranger candidates from 2015–2016 and found a 40.3% overall graduation rate. Its findings reinforce and refine earlier assumptions:

• Younger candidates were more likely to graduate.
• Faster 2-mile run times predicted higher odds of success.
• Candidates from units with a higher percentage of Ranger-qualified soldiers (unit Ranger density) were significantly more likely to graduate.
• Grit, as a measurable personality trait, did not distinguish graduates from non-graduates.

The authors do not clarify whether testing occurred before or after RAP Week, but given the sample description and timing, it most likely reflects pre–RAP Week candidate testing.

Practitioner Perspective: What Instructors See

Former Ranger Instructor John Spencer (Modern War Institute, 2016) described RAP Week as the “biggest killer” in the course. He emphasized that most push-up failures stemmed not from a lack of strength but from poor movement standardization — candidates were often surprised when push-ups they had counted in unit PT did not meet Army regulation form. He also reinforced that land navigation and rucking under fatigue remain predictable failure points .

Spencer’s conclusion mirrors the data: RAP Week filters those who can perform under technical precision and exhaustion. Beyond that, success hinges less on willpower or “grit” than on preparation, technical competence, and conditioning.

The New Gate: Ranger Physical Fitness Assessment 2.0 (RPFA)

Implemented in April 2025, the RPFA replaced the RPA to better evaluate combat-relevant movement under fatigue.

Phase 1 (ACUs + boots, ≤14 min):

1. 800-meter run

2. 30 dead-stop push-ups

3. 100-meter sprint

4. 16 sandbag lifts (40 lb to 68-inch platform)

5. 50-meter farmers’ carry (2 × 40 lb water cans)

6. 50-meter crawl/rush drill (25m low crawl + 25m 3–5 sec rush)

7. 800-meter run finish

Phase 2 (PT uniform):

• 4-mile run (≤32 minutes)

• 6 strict chin-ups

The RPFA replaces static repetition tests with continuous, functional tasks that more closely replicate combat physical demands. However, as of late 2025, no data have been released on how the new assessment affects RAP Week pass/fail rates.

Takeaways

• Half or more of all Ranger School failures occured during RAP Week, primarily from push-ups, land navigation, and the ruck.
• Candidates who survive RAP Week have a 70%+ chance of finishing Ranger School.
• Graduates tend to be younger, faster, and come from more Ranger-rich units — not necessarily “grittier.”
• Push-up failure during the old RPA has historically been the top single cause of elimination. Importantly, for the new RPFA, the push up passing requirement dropped from 49 reps to 30 reps.

The new RPFA represents a major shift toward assessing movement under fatigue, but until data are available, legacy attrition models remain the baseline reference. There is no data we could find yet released by the Army on RPFA failure rates during RAP week. 

Sources

Fivecoat, D., Cunningham, R., & Rieger, S. (2016). Properly Preparing for the Rigors of Ranger School. Infantry Magazine.

Benedict, T.M. et al. (2023). Demographic, Psychosocial, and Physical Fitness Predictors of Successful Graduation from U.S. Army Ranger School. Military Psychology, 35(2), 180–191.

Spencer, J. (2016). The Challenges of Ranger School and How to Overcome Them. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/challenge-ranger-school-can/

Army Unveils New Fitness Assessment for Ranger Students, Association of the US Army, https://www.ausa.org/news/army-unveils-new-fitness-assessment-ranger-students